Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Sioux Falls, SD...Rochester, MN...Eau Claire, WI...La Crosse, WI...Mankato, MN...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE
40,706
309,890
Bismarck, ND...Minot, ND...Mandan, ND...Jamestown, ND...Devils Lake, ND...
15 %
132,908
2,507,725
Fargo, ND...Plymouth, MN...Maple Grove, MN...St. Cloud, MN...Bismarck, ND...
5 %
107,999
5,255,363
Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Sioux Falls, SD...Rochester, MN...Duluth, MN...
SPC AC 161729
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN ND...NORTHEAST SD...WESTERN/CENTRAL MN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the northern
Plains into the Upper Midwest Friday afternoon into early Saturday
morning. Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and possibly a few
tornadoes will be possible.
...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Substantial boundary-layer moistening is expected across the Dakotas
into the upper Midwest on Friday, due to a combination of northward
moisture transport and evapotranspiration processes. Steep midlevel
lapse rates atop dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s F will result
in strong buoyancy, with MLCAPE rising above 3000 J/kg across the
Dakotas into southern/central MN by afternoon.
As a shortwave trough moving across the Canadian Prairies and
northern Rockies begins to influence the area by early afternoon,
intense thunderstorm development is expected across western ND into
northwest SD along and east of a surface trough. Initial
thunderstorm development may be somewhat elevated, but a transition
to primarily surface-based convection is expected by mid/late
afternoon as MLCINH erodes. Effective shear of 35-45 kt will support
organized storm structures given the strong instability. An initial
threat of large hail (potentially significant) and locally severe
gusts will be present with initial more discrete development, with a
more widespread damaging wind threat expected by late afternoon into
the evening/overnight as upscale growth occurs and a potentially
well-organized QLCS moves east-southeastward into the eastern
Dakotas and MN.
The best low-level shear and resulting tornado environment is
forecast over the eastern Dakotas into west-central MN by late
afternoon into the evening, but the tornado threat may be mitigated
somewhat by the transition to a linear mode. Regardless, a
conditional tornado threat will be present with any embedded
supercell, in addition to some brief tornado potential associated
with QLCS mesovortex development.
..Dean.. 07/16/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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