Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...St. Louis, MO...Louisville, KY...Lincoln, NE...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
13,748
90,912
Scottsbluff, NE...Torrington, WY...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...St. Louis, MO...Louisville, KY...Lincoln, NE...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
61,349
357,527
North Platte, NE...Scottsbluff, NE...Sterling, CO...Fort Morgan, CO...Torrington, WY...
5 %
332,478
36,319,236
Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Kansas City, MO...Cleveland, OH...
SPC AC 181735
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms may occur Sunday from portions of
the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley as well as the central Plains. Damaging
wind and large hail will be the main threats.
...Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region...
A shortwave trough will move through the Great Lakes on Sunday
accompanied by a cold front. By 12Z Sunday the front should extend
from a surface low in Ontario, southwest through the upper Great
Lakes and central Plains. This boundary will move east and southeast
during the day, likely extending from the lower Great Lakes through
the Ohio Valley. A moist boundary layer with upper 60s to around 70
F dewpoints will reside in the pre-frontal warm sector, contributing
to moderate instability with 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE as the boundary
layer warms. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing, mainly across
portions of MI. It is possible some of this activity might pose an
ongoing threat for a few strong wind gusts, but it will most likely
weaken during the morning. Additional storms are expected to develop
along the cold front and residual outflow boundary across the OH
Valley region. This area will reside south of stronger winds aloft
with weak vertical shear expected. However, the thermodynamic
environment may be sufficient for a threat of isolated locally
strong wind gusts with multicell lines and clusters during the
afternoon.
...Central High Plains...
A post-frontal easterly upslope regime will become established over
the central High Plains region where mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints
should advect west and northwestward beneath plume of steeper lapse
rates. This will contribute to moderate instability during the
afternoon with 1500-2000 J/kg expected. Storms are expected to
develop over the higher terrain and spread southeast during the
evening. Southeasterly low-level winds veering to westerly 30 kt at
500 mb will result in 35 to 45 kt 0-6 km shear supportive of a few
supercells, but storms should eventually congeal into lines and
clusters as they develop eastward through the High Plains Sunday
evening. Isolated large hail and damaging wind will be the main
threats.
..Dial.. 07/18/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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