Rapid City, SD...Bismarck, ND...Mandan, ND...Dickinson, ND...Pierre, SD...
MARGINAL
613,355
73,449,654
New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Charlotte, NC...Boston, MA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
50,028
182,783
Rapid City, SD...Dickinson, ND...Pierre, SD...Rapid Valley, SD...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
70,418
441,709
Rapid City, SD...Bismarck, ND...Mandan, ND...Dickinson, ND...Pierre, SD...
5 %
613,117
74,094,040
New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Charlotte, NC...Boston, MA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
70,836
442,186
Rapid City, SD...Bismarck, ND...Mandan, ND...Dickinson, ND...Pierre, SD...
5 %
313,828
11,240,758
Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...St. Louis, MO...Lincoln, NE...Overland Park, KS...
SPC AC 191729
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind are
possible Monday across parts the Dakotas and Nebraska. Other strong
storms with gusty winds may occur from the middle Mississippi and
Tennessee Valleys into the Middle Atlantic region.
...Dakotas and Nebraska...
A northern-stream shortwave trough embedded within belt of modest
(35-45 kt) mid-level westerlies will move through the northern
Plains Monday accompanied by a cold front. The front should move
from eastern MT during the morning into the central Dakotas Monday
evening. Some elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing from eastern MT
into western ND in corridor of weak warm advection and isentropic
ascent downstream from the shortwave trough. Low-level moisture will
remain modest in this region with dewpoints generally in the 50s to
near 60F. However, surface heating is expected to boost MLCAPE to
1500-2000 J/kg during the afternoon, especially from southwest ND
into western SD and NE where additional storms should develop during
the afternoon and spread southeast. Effective bulk shear from 30-40
kt will support both multicell and supercell storm modes with
isolated damaging wind and hail the main threats through mid
evening.
...Middle Mississippi Valley through the Middle Atlantic...
Storms will redevelop in vicinity of stalled front, residual outflow
boundaries and over the higher terrain from the middle MS Valley and
TN Valley regions through the Middle Atlantic where the atmosphere
will become moderately unstable. These regions will reside within a
weak shear regime supportive of pulse and multicell storms, but
isolated downburst winds will be possible with the stronger storms
during the afternoon and early evening.
..Dial.. 07/19/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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