Jul 19, 2020 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jul 19 17:29:16 UTC 2020 (20200719 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20200719 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20200719 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 70,216 441,217 Rapid City, SD...Bismarck, ND...Mandan, ND...Dickinson, ND...Pierre, SD...
MARGINAL 613,355 73,449,654 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Charlotte, NC...Boston, MA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20200719 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 50,028 182,783 Rapid City, SD...Dickinson, ND...Pierre, SD...Rapid Valley, SD...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20200719 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 70,418 441,709 Rapid City, SD...Bismarck, ND...Mandan, ND...Dickinson, ND...Pierre, SD...
5 % 613,117 74,094,040 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Charlotte, NC...Boston, MA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20200719 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 70,836 442,186 Rapid City, SD...Bismarck, ND...Mandan, ND...Dickinson, ND...Pierre, SD...
5 % 313,828 11,240,758 Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...St. Louis, MO...Lincoln, NE...Overland Park, KS...
   SPC AC 191729

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1229 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
   THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind are
   possible Monday across parts the Dakotas and Nebraska. Other strong
   storms with gusty winds may occur from the middle Mississippi and
   Tennessee Valleys into the Middle Atlantic region.

   ...Dakotas and Nebraska...

   A northern-stream shortwave trough embedded within belt of modest
   (35-45 kt) mid-level westerlies will move through the northern
   Plains Monday accompanied by a cold front. The front should move
   from eastern MT during the morning into the central Dakotas Monday
   evening. Some elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing from eastern MT
   into western ND in corridor of weak warm advection and isentropic
   ascent downstream from the shortwave trough. Low-level moisture will
   remain modest in this region with dewpoints generally in the 50s to
   near 60F. However, surface heating is expected to boost MLCAPE to
   1500-2000 J/kg during the afternoon, especially from southwest ND
   into western SD and NE where additional storms should develop during
   the afternoon and spread southeast. Effective bulk shear from 30-40
   kt will support both multicell and supercell storm modes with
   isolated damaging wind and hail the main threats through mid
   evening.  

   ...Middle Mississippi Valley through the Middle Atlantic...

   Storms will redevelop in vicinity of stalled front, residual outflow
   boundaries and over the higher terrain from the middle MS Valley and
   TN Valley regions through the Middle Atlantic where the atmosphere
   will become moderately unstable. These regions will reside within a
   weak shear regime supportive of pulse and multicell storms, but
   isolated downburst winds will be possible with the stronger storms
   during the afternoon and early evening.

   ..Dial.. 07/19/2020

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