Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
458,309
37,072,843
Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Denver, CO...Kansas City, MO...Minneapolis, MN...
SPC AC 201734
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE UPPER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Tuesday from parts
of the Upper Midwest, mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley,
and Mid-Atlantic, as well as the central High Plains. Strong to
severe wind gusts and hail are the main threats.
...Upper Mississippi Valley region...
Northern stream shortwave trough will move through the upper MS
Valley Tuesday accompanied by a cold front. By 12Z tomorrow the
front should extend from a weak surface low in western MN
southwestward through NE. A warm front will extend southeast from
the low through southeast MN into the mid MS Valley. Elevated
thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across portions of MN into IA
and this activity will shift eastward through the morning. In wake
of early storms, a corridor of modest destabilization is expected in
pre-frontal warm sector across MN into WI and additional storms may
develop along the cold front. Effective bulk shear from 35 to 40 kt
suggest some of these storms could organize and become severe with a
threat for damaging wind and hail. Given uncertainty regarding
destabilization potential and extent of early convection, will
maintain marginal for now.
...Middle Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley...
Thunderstorms will likely be in progress across portions of IA and
into MO within warm advection regime and in association with a
progressive MCV. Farther downstream across the OH Valley, the
atmosphere is expected to become moderately unstable especially
along and south of a warm front that will lift north during the day.
Potential will exist for storms to redevelop and intensify as the
MCV interacts with this boundary. Weak vertical shear will promote
multicells with isolated damaging wind the primary threat.
...Central through southern High Plains...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to once
again develop over the higher terrain and spread southeast through
the destabilizing atmosphere across the High Plains. Vertical shear
will be sufficient for some supercell structures across the central
High Plains with multicells expected farther south. Large hail and
isolated damaging wind gusts will be the main threats. At this time
coverage of storms might remain somewhat limited in the higher shear
environment across the central High Plains, will therefore maintain
marginal risk category this update.
..Dial.. 07/20/2020
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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