Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 260603
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...
CORRECTED FOR BAD NDFD GRID
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the lower Great Lakes into
lower Ohio Valley Monday afternoon and evening, accompanied by at
least some risk for potentially damaging wind gusts.
...Synopsis...
Models indicate that short wave troughs within the mid-latitude
westerlies across the northeastern Pacific into western Canadian
provinces will remain progressive through this period, and modestly
amplified downstream ridging is forecast to shift east of the
Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies, through the Canadian Prairies
and adjacent international border area.
To the east of the ridging, an elongated mid-level low, embedded
within broad, larger-scale troughing, may continue to gradually dig
east-southeastward across Ontario, the Great Lakes region and
western Quebec. An associated surface cold front, likely reinforced
by outflow generated by considerable thunderstorm activity, may
progress southeast of the lower Great Lakes region and Ohio River,
while also advancing into Ozark Plateau and south central portions
of the Great Plains by late Monday night. Mostly well south of the
stronger westerlies, and beneath relatively warm mid-level air,
severe thunderstorm potential seems limited Monday through Monday
night.
...Lower Great Lakes into lower Ohio Valley...
Within the larger-scale cyclonic mid-level flow, models continue to
indicate that at least one significant short wave impulse will dig
southeast of the Upper Midwest, before turning eastward and
northeastward across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and
western Quebec. Most guidance indicates that this will contribute
to some strengthening of southwesterly to westerly flow in the 850
to 500 mb layer (to 30+ kt) across the Lakes Erie into Ontario
vicinity by late Monday afternoon, and perhaps as far southwest as
portions of the lower Ohio Valley. It appears that this could
coincide with a corridor of pre-frontal boundary-layer
destabilization (CAPE up to 2000+ J/kg), supported by daytime
heating, surface dew points near 70F, and perhaps weak mid-level
cooling. This environment may become supportive of upscale growing
convection capable of producing potentially damaging wind gusts,
aided by heavy precipitation loading, late Monday afternoon into
Monday evening.
..Kerr.. 07/26/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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