Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 261722
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the lower Great Lakes into
lower Ohio Valley Monday afternoon and evening, accompanied by at
least some risk for potentially damaging wind gusts.
...Synopsis...
Mature cyclone over northern Saskatchewan and far northwest Ontario
early Monday is forecast to progress southeastward into central
Ontario. As it does, a compact, low-amplitude shortwave trough will
move through its base across the Upper Great Lakes. This evolution
will help encourage further southeastward progress of an associated
cold front. This front is forecast to begin the period extending
from lower MI southwestward into central, before gradually moving
southeastward throughout the day. By early Tuesday morning, this
front is expected to extend from western NY southwestward through
the TN Valley and then back westward along the OK/KS border.
Farther west, upper ridging will remain in place over the Southwest.
Northern portion of this ridge will extend into the northern
Rockies/Interior Pacific Northwest early in the period before
dampening a shortwave trough move out of central CA and across the
Great Basin.
...OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes into the central/southern Plains...
Moist and unstable air mass, with afternoon temperatures in the
upper 80s and dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s, will be in place
ahead of the cold front mentioned in the synopsis. Widespread
thunderstorm development is anticipated during the afternoon and
evening along the front from the central/southern Plains into the
Upper OH valley/Lower Great Lakes region. Much of this activity will
be displaced south of the stronger flow aloft, resulting in a weakly
sheared environment and predominately pulse/disorganized storm mode.
The only exception is across portions of the Upper OH Valley and the
Lower Great Lakes region where slightly stronger flow aloft will
contribute to enough vertical shear for more persistent/organized
updrafts. A few of these updrafts may be strong enough to produce
isolated damaging wind gusts.
..Mosier.. 07/26/2020
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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