New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Boston, MA...Washington, DC...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
80,165
50,950,000
New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Boston, MA...Washington, DC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 271721
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2020
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from New England into the
northern Mid Atlantic Coast region Tuesday, accompanied by at least
some risk for potentially damaging wind gusts.
...Synopsis...
A mature cyclone will be centered over Ontario early Tuesday
morning. Modest eastward progress of this cyclone is anticipated
throughout the day as several compact, low-amplitude shortwave
troughs move through the stronger mid-level flow at its base.
Occluded surface low associated with this system will be centered
over far northwest Quebec but the cold front attendant to this low
is expected to extend through western New York southwestward all the
way into northern OK. Anticipated progression of the parent cyclone
will help push the northern/eastern portions of the front through
much of New England while it remains predominantly stalled
elsewhere.
Farther west, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the
central/northern Rockies into the northern/central High Plains.
Progression of this system will result in a dampening of the upper
ridging previously in place across the northern and central High
Plains.
Generally weak flow aloft will persist throughout the southern tier
of the CONUS. Within this weak flow, a convectively augmented
vorticity maximum will drift eastward/southeastward across northern
portions of the southern Plains.
...New England into Mid Atlantic region...
Temperatures ahead of the front are forecast to range from the 80s
across ME to the 90s across the Mid-Atlantic states. Dewpoints are
expected to be in the low 70s areawide. These warm and moist
conditions will support moderate buoyancy, despite the lack of steep
mid-level lapse rates/cooling aloft. Stronger mid-level flow will
lag behind the front, minimizing the overlap between the stronger
vertical shear and better buoyancy. Even so, some overlap does
appear probable, particularly across eastern portions of New
England. In these areas, storm coverage is expected to be lower than
those farther south but the overall environment suggests these
storms could become strong/organized enough to produce damaging wind
gusts.
Buoyancy and storm coverage is expected to increase southward into
the Mid-Atlantic. Weak vertical shear will likely preclude storm
organization, but isolated damaging wind gusts are still possible as
a result of heavy precipitation loading and modest storm motions.
...Upper MS Valley...
Modest moisture advection is anticipated ahead of a subtle shortwave
trough and attendant cold front. This increased low-level moisture
coupled with steep low-level lapse rates will result in modest
instability, despite generally poor mid-level lapse rates. Deep
northwesterly flow aloft over the region is forecast to strengthen
with height, result in moderate vertical shear. Storm initiation
remains in question, precluding any probabilities with this outlook,
but a conditional severe risk exists. Probabilities may be needed in
future outlooks if confidence in storm initiation increases.
..Mosier.. 07/27/2020
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