New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Denver, CO...Virginia Beach, VA...Aurora, CO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
58,527
35,883,925
New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Virginia Beach, VA...Newark, NJ...Norfolk, VA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
24,644
118,161
Sterling, CO...Fort Morgan, CO...Lamar, CO...
5 %
151,281
38,705,372
New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Denver, CO...Virginia Beach, VA...Aurora, CO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 030604
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CDT Mon Aug 03 2020
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NE PANHANDLE INTO EASTERN CO...
...SUMMARY...
Some tornado threat will be possible from eastern North Carolina
into southern New England Tuesday into Tuesday night, in association
with Isaias. A few severe thunderstorms will also be possible across
portions of the northern and central High Plains.
...Eastern NC into Southern New England...
T.C Isaias is forecast to be centered over northeastern NC Tuesday
morning. Forecast soundings continue to show low level shear
increasing through the morning and into the afternoon from the
Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, as the system tracks
northeast with increasing forward speed through Wednesday morning.
Low level shear will be favorable for rotation in cells developing
over the Coastal Plain or moving inland in outer bands as low level
hodographs become enlarged with northeast extent through peak
heating. A couple of tornadoes will be possible with this activity,
and an upgrade to Slight risk may be needed in subsequent outlooks
as confidence in timing and track increases.
...Northern/Central High Plains...
A weak shortwave impulse will migrate through northwesterly flow
aloft during the afternoon/evening. Upslope southeasterly low level
flow will transport mid 50s to near 60 F dewpoints westward across
eastern CO into western NE/KS where strong heating will aid in
moderate destabilization amid steep midlevel lapse rates. Forecast
soundings indicate effective shear greater than 35 kt, resulting in
organized, rotating updrafts. Meanwhile, inverted-v sub-cloud
thermodynamic profiles indicate potential for strong downbursts. As
storms move off of higher terrain near the I-25 corridor, a few
severe storms capable of strong gusts and large hail are expected
during the late afternoon and evening hours. Inhibition will
increase with eastward extent, and convection is expected to
gradually weaken as it tracks east/southeast toward the OK/TX
Panhandle and western KS by late evening/overnight.
..Leitman.. 08/03/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
| 
)
