Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Lakewood, CO...Sioux Falls, SD...Fort Collins, CO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Lakewood, CO...Sioux Falls, SD...Fort Collins, CO...
SPC AC 041708
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Tue Aug 04 2020
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms capable of strong wind gusts and large hail
are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening over portions of the
central High Plains.
...Central High Plains...
Northwesterly flow aloft will continue over the central High Plains
on Wednesday. An upper ridge will remain oriented over the southern
Rockies north/northwest to the MT/ID border vicinity while an upper
trough along the Pacific Coast begins to dig southward as it moves
inland late in the period. A weak shortwave impulse is forecast to
eject across the central Rockies ahead of the upper trough and
favorably timed during the afternoon/evening, resulting in weak
height falls and increasing upper forcing. In lower levels,
southeasterly upslope flow will transport modest boundary layer
moisture north and west along a surface trough extending north-south
along the central High Plains. This should allow weak to moderate
destabilization during peak heating, and thunderstorms will
initially develop over higher terrain by mid-to-late afternoon.
Effective shear greater than 30 kt amid steep midlevel lapse rates
and somewhat long/straight hodographs will allow for organized
convection to be maintained as it moves eastward off the higher
terrain and over the adjacent High Plains. High-based supercells
and storm clusters will pose a threat for severe gusts and large
hail through the evening hours. Inhibition will increase with
eastward extent and convection should weaken during the early
overnight hours.
...Portions of eastern SD into southwest MN...
A weak surface boundary will extend from western NE into the eastern
Dakotas/western MN Wednesday afternoon/evening immediately preceding
a mid-level shortwave trough. Although low-level moisture will
remain modest, the steepening of low-level lapse rates during the
day will contribute to moderate buoyancy (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE).
It appears the greatest chance for storm organization will coincide
with stronger mid- to upper-level flow over eastern SD. Isolated
large hail/severe gusts may accompany the stronger diurnal storms
before this activity weakens during the evening as it moves east of
an instability axis.
..Smith.. 08/04/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
| 
)
