Charlotte, NC...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Greensboro, NC...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
255,354
14,810,800
Charlotte, NC...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Greensboro, NC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
183,088
1,078,750
Billings, MT...Great Falls, MT...Butte, MT...Helena, MT...Gillette, WY...
SPC AC 051712
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 PM CDT Wed Aug 05 2020
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND IN
VIRGINIA AND PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible Thursday afternoon and
evening from Montana southward through the central High Plains and
into portions of the Texas Panhandle. Severe gusts and hail will be
possible with the strongest storms. Localized damaging gusts may
accompany several thunderstorms from the Delmarva into the western
Carolinas.
...High Plains...
A mid- to upper-level ridge over the High Plains will slowly move
eastward across the northern High Plains as a mid-level shortwave
trough moves from the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies
during the period. The strongest southwest to westerly mid- to
high-level flow will remain across MT and WY with weaker flow
further south that is increasingly displaced from northwestern CONUS
disturbance. Strong heating is forecast over the High Plains amidst
an adequately moist boundary layer. Initial thunderstorm
development will favor higher terrain over southwest MT, the Front
Range, and Raton Mesa before storms gradually spread east. Isolated
to scattered clusters of storms are forecast by early evening with
isolated severe gusts/hail the primary hazards. The severe risk
will eventually spread east into eastern portions of the Marginal
Risk by mid evening before increasing convective inhibition and
lessening instability lead to a diminishing severe risk.
...Delmarva into the western Carolinas...
A weak mid- to upper trough over the western Great Lakes to the Mid
South will shift slowly east towards the Appalachians during the
day. A ribbon of 20-35 kt flow will move through the base of the
trough and 20-35 kt effective shear will be sufficient for some
storm organization from the western Carolinas into parts of the
Mid-Atlantic states. A very moist boundary layer sampled by
Wednesday morning upper-air soundings along the Carolina coastal
plain (12 UTC CHS and MHX showing 16-18 g/kg lowest 100mb mean
mixing ratios), will combine with strong heating to yield moderate
destabilization by early-mid afternoon. Wet microbursts with
localized gusts primarily in the 50-60 mph range will be capable of
pockets of wind damage with the stronger storms. The risk for
thunderstorm wind damage will probably focus during the early-mid
afternoon to early evening period before dissipating thereafter.
..Smith.. 08/05/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
| 
)
