Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
37,407
3,280,928
Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Plymouth, MN...Brooklyn Park, MN...Eau Claire, WI...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Omaha, NE...Madison, WI...Des Moines, IA...Rockford, IL...Sioux Falls, SD...
SPC AC 080554
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Sat Aug 08 2020
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the
northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley Sunday afternoon and
evening. Large hail and wind damage will likely be the primary
threats.
...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley...
A low-amplitude upper-level trough will move across the northern
High Plains on Sunday as west-southwest mid-level flow remains over
the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a
fast-moving cold front will advance southeastward across the
northern Plains and should be positioned from northwest Minnesota
into eastern South Dakota by late afternoon. Ahead of the front,
surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F will likely
result in strong destabilization by afternoon. As low-level
convergence increases along the front during the afternoon,
convective initiation appears likely across eastern North Dakota.
This activity should move eastward across northwest and
north-central Minnesota during the late afternoon and early evening.
NAM forecast soundings in north-central Minnesota at 00Z/Monday have
MLCAPE near 5000 J/kg with steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Wind
profiles gradually veer from the southwest at the surface to
westerly near 500 mb with 0-6 km shear forecast to be around 25 kt.
This would be sufficient for a wind damage threat in areas that
strongly destabilize, especially true for any line segment that can
form along the front. Isolated large hail will also be possible with
the stronger updrafts.
Further to the east, strong instability is forecast to develop on
Sunday in eastern Minnesota and across much of Wisconsin. Model
forecasts suggest that elevated convection may be ongoing in the
morning along a warm front across northern Wisconsin. Outflow
associated with this convection could determine where thunderstorm
development across the warm sector takes place in the afternoon. A
30 to 40 kt low-level jet is also forecast to increase across the
upper Mississippi Valley. This will provide additional support for
convective development. Thunderstorms appear most likely to initiate
in the mid afternoon around Minneapolis and move eastward across
north-central Wisconsin. Instability in north-central Wisconsin is
forecast to be strong with veered wind profiles. Steep lapse rates
and speed shear in the low-levels could be enough for a wind damage
threat with the organized line segments. The severe threat could
continue into the early to mid evening as the cold front approaches
from the west.
..Broyles.. 08/08/2020
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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