Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
37,407
3,280,928
Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Plymouth, MN...Brooklyn Park, MN...Eau Claire, WI...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
154,200
10,094,331
Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Madison, WI...Sioux Falls, SD...Cedar Rapids, IA...
SPC AC 081727
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2020
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...CENTRAL MINNESOTA SOUTH INTO NORTHERN IOWA...AND MUCH OF
WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the
Upper Midwest Sunday afternoon and evening. Large hail and wind
damage will likely be the primary threats.
...Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes...
A large-scale mid-level trough will move across south-central Canada
and into the Red River Valley during the period. A surface cold
front is forecast to move from the northern Great Plains into the
Upper MS Valley southwestward into parts of the Central Great
Plains. A convective complex will likely be ongoing Sunday morning
across parts of MN with an associated MCV. This scenario introduces
considerable uncertainty on the subsequent evolution of possible
thunderstorm activity regenerating or developing downstream (farther
east) on outflow. There is high confidence that a reservoir of rich
low-level moisture will reside across the western part of the
Cornbelt with 70s F dewpoints forecast. Strong heating, a plume of
steep mid-level lapse rates, coupled with the rich moisture will
yield a very unstable to extremely unstable airmass (3000-5500 J/kg
MLCAPE). An elevated mixed layer featuring a capping inversion will
likely limit thunderstorm development especially with southward
extent when removed from convective outflow. Nonetheless, strong to
severe gusts capable of wind damage will be possible with the
stronger thunderstorms/clusters along with large hail. Farther west
near the front by the late afternoon, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are forecast. A hail/wind risk will accompany the
stronger storms as some of this activity persists into the overnight
as a west-southwesterly LLJ strengthens.
..Smith.. 08/08/2020
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