Chicago, IL...Milwaukee, WI...Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...Madison, WI...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
152,413
20,486,169
Chicago, IL...Milwaukee, WI...Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...Madison, WI...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
152,504
20,466,023
Chicago, IL...Milwaukee, WI...Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...Madison, WI...
SPC AC 090600
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon
and evening from parts of the central Plains east-northeastward into
the southern Great Lakes. Strong wind gusts and hail will be the
primary threats.
...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper Mississippi
Valley/Southern Great Lakes...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Upper Midwest on
Monday as a cold front advances southeastward across the central
Plains, lower Missouri Valley and mid to upper Mississippi Valley.
South of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s
F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon.
Thunderstorms appear likely to develop just ahead of the upper-level
trough along parts of the front around midday, from far southeast
Nebraska into southern Iowa. These storms are forecast to move
east-southeastward across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley during
the afternoon. Thunderstorms could also develop along the front in
parts of Kansas and northern Missouri during the afternoon.
Thunderstorm coverage may be more isolated across the central Plains
where warm air aloft may impede convective development.
The main issue with this forecast is the difference in model
solutions. The development of localized pockets of strong
instability will be possible from eastern parts of the central
Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley, but model forecasts vary
considerably concerning the distribution of instability.
Thunderstorms that can develop in proximity to strong instability
could obtain an isolated severe threat. Deep-layer shear should be
strong enough for multicells capable of producing marginally severe
wind gusts. Hail could also occur with storms that form near the
stronger instability. However, model forecasts also suggest much of
the convection could be post-frontal, especially from the lower
Missouri Valley eastward. In this scenario, a band of storms would
develop just to the west of the stronger instability but the two
would not overlap. For this reason, a marginal risk seems to be the
appropriate forecast at this time.
Further west into the central Plains, convective initiation is more
uncertain due to the warm air aloft. Any cell that can develop a
more vigorous updraft in spite of the warm air aloft, could obtain a
marginal severe threat.
..Broyles.. 08/09/2020
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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