SPC AC 091730

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020

   Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
   CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday
   afternoon and evening over parts of Kansas and Missouri.  Severe
   gusts will be the primary hazard.

   ...KS into the lower MO Valley...
   A mid-level trough over the northern Great Plains will move east to
   the Upper MS Valley by early evening.  A surface front draped from
   the Upper Great Lakes into the central Great Plains will slide
   southeastward during the day-2 period.  A residual plume of steep
   mid-level lapse rates associated with an elevated mixed layer, will
   likely inhibit storm development along the front until mid-late
   afternoon.  Rich low-level moisture from near/east of I-35 in KS
   into MO will contribute to a very unstable to extremely unstable
   airmass by late afternoon.  One of the primary limiting factors is
   the modest deep-layer shear (storm-organization potential) shown in
   model guidance.  Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop
   along the front by late afternoon into the evening.  The presence of
   steep low- to mid-level lapse rates will favor intense downdrafts
   with the stronger cores and isolated to widely scattered severe
   gusts are possible.  One or two linear clusters may evolve during
   the evening and push east-southeast across the lower MO Valley and
   parts of KS into northern OK Monday night but with a diminishing
   severe hazard.

   ...IL into the lower OH Valley...
   A thunderstorm complex will likely be ongoing Monday morning across
   the southwest Great Lakes as a veering west-southwesterly LLJ
   weakens during the morning.  A few strong thunderstorms are possible
   prior to thunderstorms weakening by mid morning.  It is unclear
   whether the ongoing activity regenerates with an uptick in severe
   potential by midday into the afternoon across parts of the lower OH
   Valley and eventually into parts of TN.  The eastern extent of steep
   (7-8 deg C/km) 700-500 mb lapse rates will encompass IL into western
   KY.  Isolated strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage may
   accompany this semi-organized activity during the day.  Model
   guidance differs whether additional storms will move into the area
   along a front during the evening.  A hail/wind hazard may develop if
   this scenario occurs.  This activity would potentially push
   southeastward into the lower OH Valley late in the evening into the
   overnight.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   The western extent of a moisture reservoir over the southern Great
   Plains will become moderately unstable by mid-late afternoon near a
   dryline/lee trough.  Recent convection-allowing model guidance
   indicates at least widely spaced to isolated thunderstorms are
   possible from the OK/TX Panhandles into the South Plains.  Upwards
   of 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE is possible over a portion of the TX/OK
   Panhandles with weaker CAPE noted with classic inverted-V profiles
   farther southwest.  The risk for isolated hail/severe gusts (ranging
   from 60-70 mph) will likely peak during the early evening and storms
   will diminish by sunset.

   ..Smith.. 08/09/2020

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