Little Rock, AR...Broken Arrow, OK...Fort Smith, AR...Fayetteville, AR...North Little Rock, AR...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
91,792
3,405,452
Little Rock, AR...Broken Arrow, OK...Fort Smith, AR...Fayetteville, AR...North Little Rock, AR...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 100742
Day 2 Convective Outlook AMEND 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
AMENDED TO ADD THUNDER FOR PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO MAKE
IN AGREEMENT WITH FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT DRY THUNDER
...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday in parts
of the Arkansas River Valley and High Plains.
...Arkansas Valley...
A shortwave trough will move from the southern Plains into the
Arkansas River Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a corridor of
maximized low-level moisture is forecast from northeastern Oklahoma
extending eastward into the Tennessee Valley. Convection is forecast
to initiate along the western part of this corridor during the
morning in north-central Oklahoma with thunderstorms moving eastward
into the Arkansas River Valley during the day. Surface dewpoints in
north-central Arkansas should be in the upper 60s to near 70 F,
resulting in moderate instability by afternoon. Forecast soundings
at Little Rock Tuesday afternoon show weak deep-layer shear. In
spite of this, MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range combined with
0-3 km lapse rates near 8.0 C/km may be enough for a marginal
wind-damage threat. Hail could also accompany the stronger updrafts,
mainly across the western part of the marginal risk area where
mid-level lapse rates will be a bit steeper.
...Central High Plains...
A subtle shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across the
central and northern Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, a moist
airmass will be located in the central Plains. The western edge of
this moist airmass should be in eastern Colorado where moderate
instability appears likely to develop by afternoon. As surface
temperatures warm during the day, convection should initiate in the
higher terrain. Although warm air aloft could be problematic for
vigorous convective growth, a few storms could move eastward into
the lower elevations during the mid to late afternoon. The
combination of instability and deep-layer shear may be strong enough
for an isolated severe threat near peak heating. Marginally severe
wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats. Any severe threat
should diminish by early evening as warm air aloft and capping
inhibits convective development across the region.
..Broyles.. 08/10/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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