Memphis, TN...Little Rock, AR...Amarillo, TX...Murfreesboro, TN...Fort Smith, AR...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
228,914
6,773,495
Memphis, TN...Little Rock, AR...Amarillo, TX...Murfreesboro, TN...Fort Smith, AR...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
152,251
1,842,949
Amarillo, TX...Fort Smith, AR...Muskogee, OK...Hot Springs, AR...Clovis, NM...
SPC AC 101731
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO PARTS OF THE
OZARKS...
...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday across much
of the High Plains, South Dakota and Nebraska. A few strong storms
are also possible over parts of Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma,
extending northeastward into Tennessee.
...Synopsis...
Heights will rise over the northern Plains and Great Lakes as an
upper trough shifts northeast across Ontario and Quebec. Meanwhile,
another upper trough will pivot southeastward across the Pacific
Northwest, ID and MT.
At the surface, a lee trough will develop from MT all the way south
into west TX, with moderately cool temperatures aloft remaining
across the High plains beneath weak westerlies aloft.
To the east, substantial storms/residual MCS may be ongoing across
the mid MO and OH Valleys, and much of this activity may persist to
some extent from the TN Valley to the Ozarks.
...TN Valley westward across AR and eastern OK...
Low-predictability strong to severe storm potential may develop
during the day across this region, related to possible
southward-moving outflow from the Monday MCS across the Midwest.
Model consensus is for Monday night storms to produce substantial
outflow across MO and IL, with outflow surging south/southwest
during the day. The air mass ahead of this lifting mechanism will be
moist and unstable, and will favor mainly strong to marginally
severe wind gusts. Severe probabilities in this region will likely
be adjusted spatially in later outlooks as predictability increases.
...Central and southern High Plains...
Heating near the lee-trough and backed/southeast surface winds
maintaining moisture will result in an axis of > 2000 J/kg SBCAPE
from northeast WY into the TX Panhandle. While low to mid level
winds will not be particularly strong, they will veer with height,
resulting in hodographs favorable for a few longer lived cells
capable of large hail. Eastward extent of the severe threat will be
limited by MLCIN increasing during the evening.
...SD/NE...
Strong heating over western SD along with moisture returning
northwestward late will result in profiles conditionally favorable
for severe storms. While capping will exist over central SD/NE
initially, storms should form in the hot air over the Black Hills,
then persist east/southeast during the evening, aided by a low-level
jet. Damaging winds and hail will be possible, and if MCS potential
increases in later outlooks, an upgrade to Slight Risk may become
necessary.
..Jewell.. 08/10/2020
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