SPC AC 111731

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1231 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020

   Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
   NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms with large hail and a few strong gusts are
   possible across parts of far eastern Montana into North Dakota
   Wednesday afternoon and evening, and over parts of Nebraska and
   northern Kansas.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper high will remain situated over NM while an upper trough
   moves east across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Height
   falls will occur late in the day over MT and ND, with surface
   trough/wind shift over eastern MT at 00Z. East of this boundary,
   southeast surface winds will bring 60s F dewpoints northwestward,
   aiding destabilization. The combination of lengthening hodographs
   and lift should result in at least a few severe storms.

   To the south, a lee trough will extend south along the length of the
   high Plains, with a moist, unstable air mass along and east.
   Temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool across the central
   Plains, aiding lapse rates and instability. 

   Elsewhere, an early disturbance associated with early day storms
   will move across parts of MN, where low-level warm advection will
   persist near a warm front. This may aid re-development during the
   afternoon or evening, with a few strong storms possible there.

   ...Eastern MT into ND...
   Storms will develop along the cold front over far eastern MT and
   move into western ND during the early evening. Veering winds with
   height will favor supercells capable of large hail, though
   temperature/dewpoint spreads and only modest SRH level should
   minimize tornado potential. Capping will limit eastward extent
   during the evening, but an isolated cell may potentially affect
   central ND.

   ...Central Plains...
   Strong heating will lead to a deep, mixed layer over WY, CO,
   southwest KS and into the OK/TX Panhandles. High-based storms are
   expected to form during the afternoon over far eastern CO and
   western NE near the surface trough. Marginal hail is possible
   initially with a developing wind threat as outflow increases in
   coverage. An increasing low-level jet late in the day and overnight
   will maintain good theta-e advection ahead of any developing storms,
   suggesting MCS potential into the evening to the east/southeast over
   central NE and into KS.

   ..Jewell.. 08/11/2020

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