SPC AC 131728

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1228 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
   MINNESOTA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind and hail, and perhaps a few
   tornadoes, will be possible over parts of the upper Mississippi and
   mid Missouri Valleys Friday afternoon and evening. Marginally severe
   thunderstorms will be possible in parts of the central Plains and
   into the Texas Panhandle.

   ...Synopsis...
   A potent upper trough will move across the northern Plains and upper
   MS Valley, with low pressure deepening a bit from SD into northern
   MN. Trailing south from the low will be a cold front, which will be
   the focus for numerous storms during the day. 

   Ahead of this front, strengthening southerly winds will maintain a
   moist and unstable air mass, with favorable shear across the region
   for severe storms. A 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet will enhance
   severe potential along the front.

   To the south, trailing parts of the front may interact with modest
   northwest flow around the AZ/NM upper high to produce an isolated
   severe storm threat from western KS into the TX Panhandle.

   ...Northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley...
   Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Friday morning over parts
   of northern MN, possibly an MCS with lingering wind potential. This
   activity should generally diminish throughout the day, but will
   leave outflow boundaries. More of the region (perhaps central MN)
   may experience outflow than forecast by some of the models, and this
   may play a role in destabilization and severe potential going
   forward.

   Meanwhile, additional early-day activity is expected over ND, north
   of the surface low and near the upper trough where temperatures
   aloft will be cool. This activity will likely be elevated initially,
   with large hail threat. As the system continues east into MN, this
   activity will become surface based, intensify during the afternoon.
   As the air mass destabilizes ahead of the cold front, storms will
   develop southward across MN and into eastern NE northeast KS.

   Although storms will be along a cold front, supercells will be
   possible, either a broken line or QLCS. If early-day outflow does
   not hamper destabilization too much, very large hail and a few
   tornadoes will be possible. SRH will be strongest over northern MN
   as a 40-50 kt low-level jet impinges on the outflow. Capping
   increases with eastward extend toward the MS River, but at least
   some damaging wind threat should continue into those areas as
   organized convection is anticipated.

   ...Central/Southern Plains...
   Farther southwest into KS and the TX Panhandle, very steep low-level
   lapse rates will erode capping, and storms are likely to form along
   the cold front. Hail is most likely with southward-moving cells over
   KS where moisture quality will be better than farther south.
   However, a few strong wind gusts will be possible into TX.

   ..Jewell.. 08/13/2020

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