SPC AC 140600

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST...THE NORTHERN MINNESOTA AREA...THE
   SOUTHERN ROCKIES VICINITY...AND THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Marginally severe thunderstorms with strong wind gusts and hail will
   be possible Saturday afternoon and evening from parts of the Great
   Lakes southwestward into east-central Missouri, over the northern
   Minnesota vicinity, and over parts of the central and southern High
   Plains.  Locally gusty winds will also be possible across portions
   of the Carolinas and southern Virginia.

   ...Synopsis...
   A large upper ridge -- centered over the Desert Southwest, will
   continue to prevail across the western half of the country Saturday.
    On the eastern side of the ridge, several weak disturbances are
   expected to pivot southward across the southern Rockies/central and
   southern High Plains region.

   Over the north-central U.S., several fast-moving cyclonic
   disturbances -- embedded in northwesterly flow -- will shift across
   the Canadian Prairie and adjacent north-central states, and into the
   Upper Great Lakes region.  Farther east, a weak/slow-moving upper
   trough will move slowly eastward across the Appalachians through the
   period.

   ...Lower Michigan vicinity to east-central Missouri...
   Moderate destabilization is expected from Lower Michigan
   southwestward into Missouri, along and ahead of a weak surface
   front/trough.  With weak disturbances embedded within slightly
   enhanced (around 20 kt) mid-level northwesterly flow, large-scale
   ascent -- focused near the weak surface boundary -- should support a
   broken band of showers and thunderstorms -- peaking in coverage
   through the afternoon and into the evening hours.  Stronger storms 
   across the region will be capable of producing gusty winds --
   possibly approaching severe levels locally, along with marginal
   hail.  Threat will diminish later in the evening and into the
   overnight hours in tandem with diurnal stabilization. 

   ...Parts of the central and southern High Plains vicinity...
   Several cyclonic mid-level disturbances moving southward across the
   southern Rockies vicinity will support afternoon storm development
   over the higher terrain of New Mexico and northward in a more
   isolated manner into Colorado, as moderate destabilization occurs in
   conjunction with daytime heating.  A deep mixed layer evolving
   beneath moderate CAPE above will result in potential for stronger
   storms to producing locally strong wind gusts, along with some
   potential for upscale growth along convective outflows.  Storms
   could spread eastward into parts of the southern High Plains/Texas
   Panhandle later in the afternoon/early evening, with attendant risk
   for locally severe wind gusts.

   ...Parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia...
   Modest instability/weak lapse rates should characterize the
   thermodynamic environment from southern Virginia southward to
   Georgia Saturday, ahead of the weak/slowly advancing upper trough. 
   Still, with ample large-scale ascent, expect widespread
   thunderstorms by afternoon across the area.  

   With 20 to 25 kt mid-level southwesterlies expected across the area,
   resulting/modest shear could support semi-organized/multicell
   clusters, capable of producing gusty winds locally -- possible
   sufficient for some tree damage.  Threat will peak by late
   afternoon, before diminishing gradually into the evening hours.

   ...Northern Minnesota area...
   Weak afternoon destabilization is expected across northern Minnesota
   and vicinity in tandem with daytime heating.  As a series of
   cyclonic disturbances within enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow
   shift across the north-central U.S., isolated to scattered storm
   development may occur across this area.  Given rather fast-moving
   storms and somewhat dry lower levels, gusty/locally damaging winds
   may occur with one or two of the strongest storms through early
   evening.

   ..Goss.. 08/14/2020

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