Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
62,735
374,690
Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...Liberal, KS...Dumas, TX...Sterling, CO...
SPC AC 170553
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHWEST...AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS VICINITY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms -- accompanied by risk for damaging
winds -- are forecast to spread across parts of the Northwest on
Tuesday, from the eastern Oregon vicinity into parts of western
Montana. A couple of severe storms may also occur over the central
High Plains vicinity.
...Synopsis...
The general western trough/eastern ridge pattern within the upper
flow field will continue over the U.S. Tuesday, though some
breakdown on the northern fringe of the ridge -- i.e. over the
northern Intermountain region is expected. This will occur as
numerous cyclonic disturbances continue moving in an anticyclonic
arc across western Canada and the northwestern CONUS. Meanwhile in
the East, troughing will remain in place -- expanding
southward/deepening a bit through the period.
At the surface, a weak cool front extending from New England to the
Ohio Valley early, is expected to shift southeastward across the
central and southern Appalachians, while high pressure expands
across much of the central and eastern U.S. in its wake. Farther
west, while lee troughing will generally persist across the High
Plains, high pressure will prevail across a large portion of the
Intermountain region.
...The northwestern states...
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop diurnally once
again across parts of the northwestern U.S., as daytime heating
results in ample high-based CAPE, and terrain-induced convective
development is enhanced by mid-level disturbances moving through
fast southwesterly flow aloft.
Given the belt of fast (35 to 45 kt) mid-level southwesterlies,
rather rapid storm motion combined with the deep/dry mixed layer
suggests potential for locally strong/damaging gusts with a few of
the more intense/sustained cells into the evening hours.
...The central High Plains area...
Though boundary-layer capping and what appears to be rather
featureless anticyclonic north-northwesterly flow aloft around the
eastern fringe of the ridge should limit convection coverage, a few
afternoon storms may evolve -- initially most likely to initiate
over the higher terrain. With time, any storms that can become
sustained will likely shift toward lower elevations -- aided by
enhanced north-northwesterly winds aloft atop low-level southerlies.
Given the available CAPE, and this flow configuration with height,
cold pool development would likely yield one or two
forward-propagating clusters, that could produce more widespread
damaging winds than currently expected. However, will introduce
only 5% probability at this time, as it appears most likely that
convective coverage will remain limited.
..Goss.. 08/17/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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