Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
54,724
306,327
Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...North Platte, NE...Liberal, KS...Lamar, CO...
SPC AC 171656
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHWEST...AND OVER PARTS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms -- accompanied by risk for damaging
winds -- are forecast to spread across parts of the Northwest on
Tuesday, from eastern Oregon into parts of western Montana. A
couple of severe storms may also occur over the west-central Plains
vicinity.
...Eastern Oregon into western Montana...
Strong west to southwesterly flow will spread across the Northwest
atop the amplified upper ridge on Tuesday. Weak shortwave
perturbations will migrate through the flow, and aid in diurnally
induced thunderstorms. Forecast soundings indicate modest
instability with MLCAPE values as high as 500-1000 J/kg amid 30-50
kt effective shear. Low level flow will be rather weak beneath high
cloud bases, but fast mid/upper flow will result in quick storm
motions. Very steep low level lapse rates with inverted-v low level
thermodynamic profiles are expected, which will aid in strong
downdrafts. As a result, locally severe storms capable of strong
gusts are possible from late afternoon into the evening hours.
...West-Central Plains...
A somewhat conditional severe threat will exist across parts of
southwest NE, far eastern CO, western KS and possible as far south
as the OK Panhandle late Tuesday afternoon into the evening. The
Great Plains will be under moderate north/northwest mid/upper level
flow to the east of the western upper ridge. Most guidance shows
weak perturbations migrating through northwesterly flow. However,
strong capping will preclude thunderstorm development for much of
the day. By late afternoon or evening, a few storms could develop as
the boundary layer mixes and inhibit weaken sufficiently amid
moderate instability (MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg). The surface pattern
will remain rather nondescript, with the only feature noted being a
surface trough/dryline extending north-to-south through the High
Plains. Surface dewpoints will generally be from the upper 50s to
mid 60s east of the boundary with strong heating resulting in deep
mixing through peak heating. High-based cells will mainly be capable
of strong downburst winds in this steep low level lapse rate
environment. Winds will be rather weak in the low levels, but
south/southeasterly winds beneath north/northwest upper flow will
result in 35-45 kt effective shear. With sufficient instability in
place, the strongest cells, should they form, could also produce
hail.
..Leitman.. 08/17/2020
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