Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 200558
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S....THE SOUTHEAST...AND PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Risk for a few stronger storms -- with some hail/wind potential --
may occur over the north-central U.S. A few stronger storms capable
of strong/gusty winds will also be possible over the Southeast, and
over parts of northern New York and into New England.
...Synopsis...
While an upper trough is progged to move into the Northwest, the
upper pattern over the U.S. will otherwise remain largely unchanged
on the synoptic scale, with a ridge remaining over the west, and a
trough aligned along the lower Ohio/lower Mississippi Valleys.
At the surface, a weak cool front is expected to drift southeastward
across the northern Plains/upper Mississippi Valley in conjunction
with an advancing mid-level short-wave trough, and a cool front is
also expected to sag southward across northern New England. A cold
front is also expected to move across the Pacific Northwest ahead of
the advancing upper system.
...Northern Plains/upper Great Lakes...
As a rather well-defined short-wave trough moves across the Canadian
Prairie and adjacent north-central U.S., moderate afternoon
destabilization is expected ahead of a weak/accompanying cool front
expected to move southeastward across the northern Plains and upper
Mississippi Valley and eventually the northern Upper Great Lakes
region.
While the stronger westerly flow aloft is expected to remain to the
cool side of the surface front, moderate deep-layer flow will likely
support a few stronger storms/storm clusters. Locally
gusty/damaging winds and hail would be possible with the stronger
convection. However, given capping concerns that will likely tend
to limit convective coverage, questions regarding overall coverage
of severe risk exist. Thus, will introduce only 5%/MRGL risk at
this time across this region.
...The Southeast...
Around the eastern periphery of the upper trough, a moist/modestly
destabilizing afternoon airmass will support another day of
scattered thunderstorm development over most of the Southeast and
into the Mid South region. Given persistence of slightly enhanced
mid-level southwesterly flow across the region, a few stronger
storms/multicell clusters are expected to evolve during the
afternoon, with attendant risk for strong gusts capable of producing
some local tree damage.
...Northern New York into New England...
A weak west-to-east baroclinic zone sagging southward into New
England will likely focus a zone of showers and isolated
thunderstorms, within a weakly destabilizing airmass. With a belt
of enhanced deep-layer westerlies over the area, a few stronger,
fast-moving storms/storm clusters may produce strong wind gusts
capable of mainly local tree damage, through early evening.
..Goss.. 08/20/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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