Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
105,282
1,004,239
Fargo, ND...Rapid City, SD...Bismarck, ND...Grand Forks, ND...Minot, ND...
SPC AC 220555
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong/locally severe storms will be possible over portions of
the northern Plains vicinity, and also across parts of northern New
York into New England on Sunday.
...Northern Plains vicinity...
As a series of short-wave troughs moving through fast westerly
mid-level flow cross the northern Intermountain region and northern
Plains, a weak west-to-east baroclinic zone is progged to sag
southward across the North Dakota vicinity during the day. By
afternoon, as another disturbance aloft approaches, a northwestern
South Dakota frontal low may evolve.
As afternoon heating results in modest destabilization across the
area, the aforementioned North Dakota boundary and the western South
Dakota frontal low, will likely focus isolated convective
development across this area. Given the enhanced flow aloft, atop
low-level southerlies, shear sufficient for organized/rotating
storms is expected. While storm coverage should remain a limiting
factor, locally damaging winds and hail will be possible with the
stronger cells into the evening hours.
...Northern New York into New England...
Fast mid-level northwesterly flow will persist across the Northeast,
with a persistent train of small cyclonic disturbances moving
through this flow, across the northern New York/New England
vicinity. Modest afternoon destabilization should support isolated
storm development, and given the strength of the flow aloft, rather
fast-moving, semi-organized storms may be capable of producing
locally gusty winds, and possible tree damage into the early evening
hours.
...Central and western Gulf Coast region...
As T.S. Marco moves slowly northwestward across the central Gulf of
Mexico, associated convection on its periphery may begin to affect
parts of the central and western Gulf Coast region late in the
period -- particularly southeastern Louisiana. However, with
low-level flow likely still relatively weak at this point, given the
current track forecast/location of Marco at the end of the Day 2
period, severe risk appears minimal.
..Goss.. 08/22/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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