Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
105,282
1,004,239
Fargo, ND...Rapid City, SD...Bismarck, ND...Grand Forks, ND...Minot, ND...
SPC AC 221717
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong/locally severe storms will be possible over portions of
the northern Plains vicinity, and also across parts of northern New
York into New England on Sunday.
...Northern Great Plains...
Water-vapor imagery Saturday shows a mid-level shortwave trough over
the southern Canadian Rockies. This disturbance will move into
central/northern Manitoba on Sunday, whereas a series of much
weaker/subtle perturbations moves west-east across the north-central
U.S. to the north of a mid-level high centered over the Four
Corners. A weak frontal zone will slowly sag southward and extend
from northwestern SD northeastward into northwest MN by early
evening Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible near this
boundary, the Black Hills, and in the vicinity of a weak surface
trough extending southward along the WY/NE border. Isolated severe
gusts and perhaps large hail are the primary severe hazards.
...Adirondacks and New England...
A belt of modest mid-level westerly flow will move across New
England on Sunday. Ample heating and surface dewpoints in the 60s F
will contribute to moderate destabilization by early afternoon.
SBCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg may support a couple of stronger storms
capable of isolated damaging gusts before this activity diminishes
by early evening.
...PA/MD/NJ...
A belt of slightly stronger upper-level flow will arc across the
northwestern periphery of the mid-level high situated near Bermuda.
Isolated/widely scattered diurnal storms are forecast in this very
weak forcing regime. Nonetheless, appreciably warm/moist low levels
beneath moderate to strong westerly 500-200mb flow will perhaps
enable better storm venting and a widely spaced strong storm or two.
The storms will diminish during by the early evening owing to
weakening instability/loss of heating.
...Extreme southeast LA...
Tropical cyclone Marco is projected to move northwest into the
central Gulf on Sunday into early Monday morning per the latest NHC
forecast. The northern rim of stronger low-level shear will likely
remain to the southeast of the mouth of the MS River during the
overnight and towards dawn. Will refrain from low-severe
probabilities for the time being.
..Smith.. 08/22/2020
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