SPC AC 280602

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0102 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
   KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND FROM THE
   CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe storms are possible from southern Kansas into
   northern Oklahoma and Arkansas Saturday afternoon and evening with
   damaging wind and large hail the main threats. A modest risk for a
   few strong to severe storms will exist from the Carolinas into the
   Middle Atlantic during the day with damaging wind gusts and a few
   tornadoes possible.

   ...Southern Kansas, Northern Oklahoma into northern Arkansas...

   A cold front will advance southward into OK and the TX Panhandle
   Saturday where the atmosphere will likely become moderately to
   strongly unstable in warm sector. Current indications are that
   elevated storms will probably be in progress north of the boundary
   across KS Saturday morning. Several CAMs as well as NAM and ECWMF
   depict an MCS and associated MCV across southern KS early in the
   period, and this activity will shift east southeast over top of a
   low-amplitude synoptic ridge during the day. Potential will exist
   for additional storms to develop across southern KS into northern OK
   as the shortwave trough advances east and interacts with the front
   and destabilizing boundary layer. Stronger flow/vertical shear will
   accompany the shortwave trough, and storms will have the potential
   to organize. A low-level jet will likely strengthen during the
   evening in association with this mesoscale system and help to
   sustain an organized MCS into the lower MS Valley region into the
   overnight. Damaging wind and hail will be the main threats.

   Other more isolated strong to severe storms may develop farther west
   in the post-frontal upslope region across the higher terrain of CO
   and spread east into High Plains during the late afternoon and
   evening. A few instances of large hail and damaging wind will be the
   main threats.  

   ...Carolinas through the Middle Atlantic...

   Remnants of Laura are forecast to accelerate through the southern
   Appalachians and Carolinas to southern Middle Atlantic regions on
   Saturday as the system becomes absorbed within belt of westerlies.
   Laura should become loosely phased with a progressive
   northern-stream trough that will move through the Great Lakes and
   Northeast States. The accompanying cold front should extend from a
   surface low over the lower Great Lakes southwestward into the Ohio
   Valley early in the day. The front will continue into the Northeast
   States and Middle Atlantic during the mid to late afternoon. Rich
   tropical moisture will reside in pre-frontal warm sector, but weak
   lapse rates and potential for widespread clouds will likely result
   in marginal instability. The stronger low-level wind fields and
   largest hodographs accompanying Laura should spread through NC and
   southern VA based on latest guidance, but the system will continue
   to undergo a weakening trend. Latest satellite imagery show Laura is
   transitioning to a hybrid system and is entraining dry air in the
   mid-upper levels. This transition might allow for greater diabatic
   heating and destabilization of the boundary layer across parts of NC
   and VA where tornado threat will be greatest, but conditional upon
   sufficient low-level destabilization. 

   Farther north into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast States, low-level
   hodographs will be smaller, but the kinematic environment might be
   sufficient for a threat of locally strong wind gusts with storms
   developing along and ahead of the advancing cold front. Threat in
   this region is also conditional upon sufficient boundary layer
   destabilization, which remains uncertain given potential for
   widespread clouds and areas of ongoing precipitation.

   ..Dial.. 08/28/2020

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