Grand Island, NE...Kearney, NE...North Platte, NE...Hastings, NE...Lexington, NE...
MARGINAL
250,561
9,506,300
Memphis, TN...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Little Rock, AR...Amarillo, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
42,756
370,866
Grand Island, NE...Kearney, NE...North Platte, NE...Hastings, NE...Lexington, NE...
5 %
251,213
9,501,408
Memphis, TN...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Little Rock, AR...Amarillo, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
42,756
370,866
Grand Island, NE...Kearney, NE...North Platte, NE...Hastings, NE...Lexington, NE...
5 %
173,031
4,221,951
Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Amarillo, TX...Norman, OK...Lawton, OK...
SPC AC 290545
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms will be possible over parts of the Great
Plains Sunday afternoon and evening with damaging wind and large
hail the main threats.
...Great Plains...
An upper-level trough will move across the northern High Plains on
Sunday as flow aloft remains divergent across the central and
northern Plains. At the surface, a corridor of maximized low-level
moisture will be in place from western Kansas northward into central
South Dakota where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1500 to 2500
J/kg range. A cold front will advance southeastward across the
central and northern Plains, providing a focus for convective
development during the mid to late afternoon. Although thunderstorms
should initially remain relatively isolated, convective coverage is
expected to increase during the early evening. A few clusters of
storms appear likely to move east-southward across the
instability/moisture corridor.
In addition to the moderate instability, model forecasts show 0-6 km
shear in the 35 to 45 kt range across much of the central and
northern Plains. Mid-level lapse rates are also steep. This
environment should be favorable for supercells with large hail. A
wind-damage threat will also likely accompany supercells. The
potential for wind damage and hail is expected to persist into the
early to mid evening as several organized short line segments move
east-southeastward across the region.
...Arkansas River Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley...
A shortwave trough will move eastward across the lower Missouri
Valley and Ozarks on Sunday. At the surface, an east-to-west
corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be in place from the
southern Plains Red River Valley into the lower to mid Mississippi
Valley. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop along this
corridor during the afternoon. Although deep-layer shear is forecast
to be in the 20 to 30 kt range, moderate instability will be in
place and low-level lapse rates will be steep. This should be enough
for a marginal wind-damage threat with the stronger multicells.
..Broyles.. 08/29/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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