Lincoln, NE...Sioux Falls, SD...Sioux City, IA...Grand Island, NE...Kearney, NE...
MARGINAL
404,074
23,733,313
Memphis, TN...Oklahoma City, OK...Nashville, TN...Omaha, NE...Tulsa, OK...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
123,561
7,514,989
Memphis, TN...Oklahoma City, OK...Little Rock, AR...Norman, OK...Fort Smith, AR...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
62,360
1,580,329
Lincoln, NE...Sioux Falls, SD...Sioux City, IA...Grand Island, NE...Kearney, NE...
5 %
403,606
23,603,208
Memphis, TN...Oklahoma City, OK...Nashville, TN...Omaha, NE...Tulsa, OK...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
62,787
1,608,081
Lincoln, NE...Sioux Falls, SD...Sioux City, IA...Grand Island, NE...Kearney, NE...
5 %
284,828
11,522,917
Oklahoma City, OK...Omaha, NE...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Plano, TX...
SPC AC 291731
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A PORTION
OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms will be possible over parts of the Great
Plains Sunday afternoon and evening with damaging wind and large
hail the main threats.
...Dakotas through central and eastern Nebraska...
A strong cold front will accompany a northern-stream shortwave
trough through the northern and central Plains Sunday. By early
Sunday this front should extend from western ND southwest into
northern Wyoming. A lee trough will extend southward through the
central High Plains. The cold front will advance southeast during
the period and by 12Z Monday should extend from eastern MN
southwestward through KS and into northeast NM. A narrow corridor of
modest low-level moisture with upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints will
advect northward through the pre-frontal warm sector beneath steep
mid-level lapse rates resulting in 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Elevated
storms with a marginal hail threat may develop in post frontal
region of ND early in the day. However, it still appears the
atmosphere will remain capped to surface based thunderstorms until
the front interacts with the destabilizing boundary layer during the
mid to late afternoon, when storms will likely develop from the
central Dakotas into NE. Winds aloft will increase with the approach
of the upper trough, though stronger flow will remain post frontal.
Moderate instability and effective bulk shear from 30-40 kt will
support both multicell and some supercell structures with damaging
wind and large hail the main threats through mid evening.
...Southern Plains through lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valley
regions...
East-west oriented baroclinic zone will stretch from OK through the
TN Valley region and will remain active with ongoing convection. The
warm sector south of the stalled boundary will likely become
moderately unstable, and a series of MCVs will advance from west to
east within belt of modest winds aloft. Additional storms will
likely develop within the frontal zone during the day, and some of
this activity will become capable of producing isolated damaging
wind and hail. However, given the complexities associated with
ongoing convection, considerable uncertainty remains regarding where
the best severe potential will be. Will therefore maintain MRGL risk
category for this update, but a SLGT risk might be required for a
portion of this region in later outlooks.
..Dial.. 08/29/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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