Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
63,366
4,038,448
Oklahoma City, OK...Little Rock, AR...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...
SPC AC 300554
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2020
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with large hail and wind damage will be
possible across parts of the southern Plains and Arkansas River
Valley on Monday. Marginally severe wind gusts will be possible in
parts of the Ozarks, central Gulf Coast states and Carolinas.
...Southern Plains/Arkansas River Valley/Ozarks...
West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the
south-central U.S. on Monday. At the surface, a cold front will
advance southeastward into the central Plains and Ozarks. Ahead of
the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F will
result in moderate instability developing across much of the moist
sector by afternoon. Thunderstorms appear likely to form along parts
of the front and in areas across the moist sector where pre-existing
boundaries are present. NAM forecast soundings along and just south
of the front from southern Oklahoma into central Arkansas at
00Z/Tuesday have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range and 0-6 km
shear of 35 to 45 kt. This environment should support supercells
with isolated large hail. Steep low-level lapse rates may also
contribute to a wind-damage potential with supercells and short
bowing line segments.
At this time, the models are in much better agreement for Monday.
The general consensus is that a broken band of strong thunderstorms
will develop from parts of west Texas east-northeastward across the
Red River Valley and into central Arkansas. The severe threat should
be concentrated in the late afternoon and early evening, but a few
persisting storm clusters could extend the threat into the mid to
late evening.
...Central Gulf Coast States...
Westerly mid-level flow will be in place across the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys on Monday. At the surface, a moist airmass will be
located across much of the central Gulf Coast states where dewpoints
will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. In response, moderate
instability should develop across much of the region by afternoon.
Although deep-layer shear will be on the weak side, low-level lapse
rates will become steep in areas that heat up the most. Storms that
develop in those areas will have potential for marginally severe
gusts.
...Carolinas...
A shortwave trough will move across the southern Appalachians on
Monday as west-southwest mid-level flow remains in the Carolinas. A
corridor of moderate instability is forecast to develop across the
western and central Carolinas. Thunderstorms should develop in the
higher terrain of the southern Appalachians and spread eastward
across the instability corridor during the afternoon. Steep
low-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear should be
sufficient for a marginal wind-damage threat during the mid to late
afternoon.
..Broyles.. 08/30/2020
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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