SPC AC 301730

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2020

   Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind are possible
   Monday over parts of the southern Plains and lower Arkansas River
   Valley. Other strong storms may occur over a portion of the
   Carolinas into southern Virginia.

   ...Southern Plains region...

   On Monday the southern Plains will remain within a belt of modest
   westerly winds aloft with embedded weak perturbations. A stalled
   front will reside from central OK into northern AR early in the
   period. A few showers and thunderstorms may be in progress along
   portions of this boundary, but this activity is expected to move
   east and diminish during the day as the low-level jet veers and
   weakens. In wake of the morning activity, at least partial clearing
   skies will promote destabilization of the moist boundary layer
   beneath 7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates supporting 2000-3000 J/kg
   MLCAPE. A cold front will advance southeast and should extend from
   MO into northern OK and northwestern TX by late afternoon.
   Additional storms are expected to develop as this boundary interacts
   with the destabilizing surface layer, and this activity will spread
   southeast during the evening. The modest wind profiles will support
   25-35 kt effective bulk shear and mostly multicell convection.
   However, the thermodynamic environment appears sufficient for storms
   to produce locally strong to damaging wind gusts and hail from
   mid-late afternoon into the evening.  

   ...Central North Carolina into Southern Virginia...

   A modest southerly low level jet is expected to develop across
   western VA, possibly extending into a portion of northern NC during
   the day in association with the approach of a low-amplitude
   shortwave trough. At the surface an east-west oriented stationary
   front should extend across NC. Showers and storms may be ongoing
   north of this boundary early in period. However, potential will
   exist for destabilization of the moist boundary layer along and
   south of the front during the day where fewer clouds are expected.
   Some enhancement of low-level hodographs will exist along trailing
   end of the low-level jet where it intersects the front from a
   portion of northern NC into southern VA. Additional storms will
   likely develop along this boundary during the afternoon, and some
   threat for a couple of brief tornadoes will exist with storms
   interacting with the boundary. Have introduced a 2% tornado this
   outlook, but this region will continue to be monitored for a
   possible SLGT risk in day 1 updates.

   ..Dial.. 08/30/2020

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