Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 310547
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe wind gusts and hail
will be possible on Tuesday across parts of the southern Plains. A
few strong wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the Ohio
Valley and lower Great Lakes.
...Southern Plains...
A positively tilted upper-level trough will move across the Desert
Southwest on Tuesday as west-southwest mid-level flow remains over
the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southward through the southern Plains. By afternoon, the front is
forecast to be located from near Midland eastward into the northern
Hill Country and northeastward into the Arklatex. As surface
temperatures warm during the day and low-level convergence increases
along the front, thunderstorm development will likely take place.
Several storm clusters should move eastward across west and north
Texas during the mid to late afternoon. These clusters may have
access to moderate instability to the south of the front. This
combined with moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse
rates should be enough for a marginal wind-damage threat with the
stronger multicells. Hail could also occur, mainly across west and
north-central Texas where mid-level lapse rates will probably be
steep.
...Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes...
An upper-level trough will move across the mid to upper Mississippi
Valley on Tuesday as west-southwest mid-level flow remains over much
of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region. A boundary is forecast to
be located across southern lower Michigan by afternoon with a moist
airmass in place to the south of the boundary. Surface dewpoints in
the mid to upper 60s F will contribute pockets of moderate
instability by afternoon. Thunderstorms that form in these areas
with maximized instability may be able to producing strong wind
gusts. Any marginal wind-damage threat will likely be concentrated
near or just after peak heating when low-level lapse rates are
forecast to be steepest.
..Broyles.. 08/31/2020
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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