New York, NY...Newark, NJ...Jersey City, NJ...Yonkers, NY...Richmond, VA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 020537
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2020
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in
the Mid-Atlantic states on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Upper Great
Lakes, through the base of a larger scale trough, and into Quebec by
early Friday morning. A mid-level anticyclone centered over the
Great Basin will influence conditions over the West. In the low
levels, a front will stall and advance northward as a warm front
across parts of the Northeast, ahead of a cold front forecast to
sweep eastward through the Great Lakes and into the Northeast during
the period.
...Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic states...
Model guidance continues to show a lower-latitude disturbance moving
from the upper TN Valley east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic
states by late afternoon. With a very moist airmass located from
KY/TN northeastward into PA/NJ south of the stalled front, showers
and thunderstorms may be ongoing early Thursday morning across KY.
Cloud breaks ahead of this convection will lead to weak/moderate
destabilization despite relatively warm 500 mb temperatures and
modest mid-level lapse rates. Scattered thunderstorm development
will likely occur over the central Appalachians during the midday
before spreading downstream towards the I-95 corridor during the
afternoon/early evening. In tandem with the diurnal storm
development, flow fields within the 700-500 mb layer will strengthen
during the day (30-40 kt at 700 mb increasing to 40-50 kt at 500 mb)
and elongate hodographs. A mixed mode of strong to severe
clusters/linear segments plus supercells is likely. Scattered
damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible. The tornado risk
will continue to be re-evaluated at later outlooks but the potential
for several supercells appears greatest in the MD/northern VA
vicinity during the afternoon. This activity will likely weaken
during the evening as it moves towards the coast but some risk may
continue well after dark.
...Hudson Valley into southern New England...
A warm front is forecast to advance northward into the southern half
of NY and southern New England during the day. Aside from warm
advection, it appears the primary forcing for ascent for storm
development will delay until after dark. Isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms are possible within an increasingly moist
airmass ahead of the approaching cold front. Isolated damaging
gusts may accompany the stronger storms.
..Smith.. 09/02/2020
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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