Mankato, MN...Mason City, IA...Owatonna, MN...Albert Lea, MN...Ledyard, IA...
MARGINAL
59,213
5,793,419
Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Des Moines, IA...Sioux Falls, SD...Cedar Rapids, IA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
62,869
5,179,882
Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Sioux Falls, SD...Cedar Rapids, IA...Rochester, MN...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
18,335
570,622
Mankato, MN...Mason City, IA...Owatonna, MN...Albert Lea, MN...Ledyard, IA...
5 %
59,038
5,771,165
Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Des Moines, IA...Sioux Falls, SD...Cedar Rapids, IA...
SPC AC 040527
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Fri Sep 04 2020
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over
southern Minnesota and Iowa Saturday night.
...MN/IA vicinity...
A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates emanating from the northern
periphery of a mid-level anticyclone centered over UT/AZ, will
overspread the Dakotas into the Corn Belt on Saturday and Saturday
night. A mid-level disturbance is forecast to rapidly move from MT
east-southeastward into IA by daybreak Sunday. As this occurs,
surface low pressure will develop over the Dakotas and a warm front
over the central Great Plains will advance north/northeast.
Model output is consistent in depicting southerly low-level flow
advecting richer moisture northward into the lower to mid MO Valley
with mid 60s reaching western IA by late evening. Strengthening
warm air advection aided by a developing southwesterly 45-kt LLJ
after dark will likely lead to scattered elevated thunderstorms
developing during the evening in eastern SD/southwestern MN with
increasing thunderstorm coverage in the form of a cluster and/or MCS
spreading east-southeast. The eastern periphery of a plume of steep
700-500 mb lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) and strong effective shear may
favor large hail with the stronger elevated cores. An isolated
damaging gust may also occur given the presence of steep lapse rates
and the possibility for an organized thunderstorm cluster to
develop.
..Smith.. 09/04/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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