Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 070527
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Mon Sep 07 2020
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the
contiguous United States on Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level low and associated trough over the eastern Great Basin
will move slowly south and overspread the Four Corners. Farther
east, a large mid-level anticyclone over the western Atlantic will
influence conditions across a large part of the eastern U.S. into
the lower MS Valley/Gulf Coast.
In the low levels, a powerful cold front will surge southward from
southwest KS/OK Panhandle through much of the southern High Plains
by daybreak Wednesday. The front will extend northeast across parts
of OK/KS into the mid MS Valley where it will move little. Showers
and isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast near and
immediately behind the front from the southern High Plains into the
lower MO Valley. Model guidance continues to indicate modest
mid-level flow which should act to lessen updraft organization
potential and the risk for localized strong thunderstorms.
...East-central AZ into northwestern NM...
Southerly low-level flow will advect moisture north into the
Mogollon Rim and east-central AZ/northwest NM during the day.
Models indicate surface dewpoints reaching the lower 50s by midday
as destabilization occurs ahead of the approaching mid-level trough.
Mid tropospheric flow (500 mb) will increase from 40 to 60+ kt
during the day. As the stronger mid- to upper-level ascent
overspreads the area, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
forecast to develop near a southeastward-moving cold front. Will
defer the possible inclusion of marginal hail/wind probabilities to
later outlooks.
..Smith.. 09/07/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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