SPC AC 140517

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1217 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR
   SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A tornado or two may occur Tuesday across portions of the central
   Gulf Coast in association with Tropical Cyclone Sally.

   ...Synopsis...
   Much of the severe threat in the continental U.S. will be confined
   to central Gulf Coast areas associated with the approach (and
   possible landfall) of Tropical Cyclone Sally (see National Hurricane
   Center forecasts for information on anticipated impacts). 
   Elsewhere, a stable airmass will reside in much of the U.S. outside
   of Southeast that should prevent deep convection in most areas.  A
   few lightning flashes may be observed near the Four Corners region
   as a pocket of cool air aloft contributes to weak, high-based
   instability in those areas during the afternoon hours.

   ...Far southeastern Louisiana into the western Florida Panhandle...
   Model guidance varies on the eventual inward progression of Tropical
   Cyclone Sally, which is not a surprise given the weakening of
   steering flow aloft expected as the storm approaches coastal areas
   during the forecast period.  Much of any severe threat will be
   heavily dependent on any inland progression of the cyclone center
   and attendant marginal buoyancy located east through southeast of
   the aforementioned center.  A few models indicate banded and
   isolated cellular convection that will probably pose a risk for
   tornadoes and/or damaging wind as long as buoyant air can migrate
   inland.  The Marginal risk is intended to cover a range of possible
   scenarios that could result in an inland severe weather threat
   during the forecast period.

   ..Cook.. 09/14/2020

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