Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 150524
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...
...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes associated with Tropical Cyclone Sally are possible
across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and
southwestern Georgia on Wednesday.
...Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, and southern Georgia...
Much of the severe threat during the forecast period will be driven
by the eventual northward evolution of Tropical Cyclone Sally.
Substantial differences remain in model guidance regarding the
eventual track of the system, though the general consensus is that
Sally will drift slowly northward toward the Gulf Coast and then
eventually accelerate northeastward toward Georgia. Along and to
the right of the path, point forecast soundings indicate extreme
low-level shear that would support rotation in cells and potential
tornado occurrence. Meanwhile, the strongest buoyancy (tied to
mid/upper 70s F dewpoints) will reside nearer the coast through the
duration of the forecast period. The attendant tornado threat will
also be maximized in this region, where 5% tornado probabilities
have been introduced for this outlook. Depending on the forward
speed of Sally, this threat will expand northeastward into southern
Georgia - most probable in the latter half of the forecast period
(midday onward).
..Cook.. 09/15/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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