Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
23,709
307,389
Marquette, MI...
SPC AC 241713
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across
parts of the Southeast, and later over a portion of the western
Upper Great Lakes area.
...Synopsis...
While weak flow aloft will continue to prevail across the southern
half of the country, fast/weakly cyclonic westerly flow over the
northern Rockies/northern Plains will expand gradually eastward
across the upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes area. Within this fast
belt of flow, several embedded vorticity maxima will traverse the
northern tier of the CONUS. Farther south, a short-wave trough over
the Ohio Valley and Mid South region will cross the Appalachians and
move into the Southeast states through the period.
At the surface, a cold front is forecast to shift gradually
eastward/southeastward across the north-central U.S. with time, and
should extend from the Upper Great Lakes to the Colorado Front Range
by Saturday morning. Elsewhere, a very weak/remnant low is forecast
to drift from Tennessee to the Carolinas through the period.
...The Southeast...
Modest heating over the Southeast during the day, combined with a
moist low-level airmass ahead of a very weak Mid South/southern
Appalachians remnant of tropical system Beta, will permit bands of
showers and thunderstorms to increase through the day, spreading
across Georgia and the Carolinas with time. With ample low-level
veering of the flow with height to persist, and some enhancement to
the mid-level westerlies in conjunction with short-wave trough
aloft, a few stronger/organized updrafts will likely evolve with
time. Along with potential for locally gusty winds capable of
mainly tree damage, a brief tornadic spin-up or two will also be
possible across this region.
...Northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan...
The eastward advance of a surface cold front, and associated upper
short-wave troughing, across the upper Mississippi Valley during the
afternoon/evening may support isolated convective development in the
northwestern Wisconsin/western Lake Superior vicinity by early
evening, while capping is expected to largely suppress convective
development with southwestward extent along the cold front.
Where any storm can develop, modest CAPE and sufficient shear
suggest potential for updraft intensification -- warranting mention
of local risk for gusty winds and/or hail -- mainly during the
evening hours.
..Goss.. 09/24/2020
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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