Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Durham, NC...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
61,451
9,239,501
Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Durham, NC...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
61,677
9,204,364
Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Durham, NC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 280553
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST VA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
Carolinas and southeast Virginia on Tuesday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Deep upper troughing is expected to persist across much of the
central and eastern CONUS on Tuesday. An embedded shortwave trough
is forecast to mature into an upper low as it moves from the mid MS
Valley southeastward across the Mid-South and then eastward across
the Southeast. Progression of this upper low will aid in the
development of a modest surface low along a front initially
extending from the Mid-Atlantic southwestward through the central FL
Panhandle. This surface low will likely track northeastward along
the front throughout the day, as the front gradually moves eastward.
Southeasterly surface winds ahead of the cold front and surface low
will help advect upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints as it moves into the
Mid-Atlantic region. Despite this favorable low-level moisture,
relatively moist profiles and resulting poor lapse rates will temper
buoyancy. However, forcing for ascent along the front will be
augmented by strong vorticity advection ahead of the upper low,
resulting in the potential for slightly deeper, more persistent
updrafts along the front. These deeper updrafts are most likely
across the Carolinas and adjacent VA Tidewater during the evening
and overnight as vertical shear vectors become oriented more
perpendicular to the front and the upper low becomes closer to the
frontal zone. This overall scenario will contribute to the potential
for a few strong wind gusts and perhaps even a tornado.
..Mosier.. 09/28/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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