Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Durham, NC...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
62,250
9,330,668
Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Durham, NC...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
61,669
9,222,757
Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Durham, NC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 281728
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CAROLINAS INTO A PORTION OF THE COASTAL MIDDLE ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms with isolated damaging wind and a couple
of tornadoes are possible across the eastern Carolinas into the
coastal Middle Atlantic Tuesday.
...Eastern Carolinas into the coastal Middle Atlantic...
Synoptic upper trough will undergo significant amplification over
the eastern states today through early Tuesday with deep layer flow
becoming increasingly parallel to the accompanying cold front. This
front should extend from a surface low in southeastern Canada
through the western Carolinas and into the central Gulf by 12Z
tomorrow. The front will continue slowly east and off the Atlantic
Seaboard toward the end of day 2. A significant vorticity maximum is
forecast to rotate through the base of the synoptic trough then
northeast into the Carolinas and Middle Atlantic Tuesday night.
Forcing accompanying this feature will remain mostly in the post
frontal zone, but will be sufficient to induce a weak cyclone that
will move from the Carolinas through the Middle Atlantic overnight,
before reaching the Northeast States late Tuesday night.
Rich low-level moisture with low 70s F dewpoints will reside in the
pre-frontal sector, but very weak lapse rates, widespread clouds and
ongoing areas of showers and storms will limit potential for
significant destabilization with MLCAPE from 400-800 J/kg possible.
While a few strong storms with gusty winds might be possible with
activity developing along and ahead of the front during the day
given sufficient (40-45 kt) unidirectional shear, the best severe
threat may be during the evening and overnight when frontogenetic
forcing and low-level shear increase in association with an
intensifying southerly low-level jet from the eastern Carolinas into
the Middle Atlantic. This process may result in the development of a
more robust line of storms along the cold front with potential for a
few embedded organized structures capable of damaging wind and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Given an expected marginal
thermodynamic environment, will maintain MRGL risk category this
outlook and continue to monitor for a possible SLGT risk upgrade in
later updates.
...Southern New England...
The stronger frontogenetic forcing might result in development of a
low-topped line of convection with little to no lightning across
southern New England late in the period. Though a few strong wind
gusts cannot be ruled out, will preclude introduction of severe
probabilities this update given expected very limited instability.
..Dial.. 09/28/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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