Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 220559
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms with strong wind gusts and hail will
be possible Friday afternoon and evening across parts of the mid
Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes.
...Mid Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley/Southern Great Lakes...
An upper-level trough will move across the Upper Midwest on Friday
as southwesterly mid-level flow is maintained across much of the
northeast. At the surface, a strong cold front is forecast to move
quickly southeastward across the Great Lakes region and lower Ohio
Valley. Moisture advection ahead of the front will increase surface
dewpoints into the lower to mid 60s F from parts of western
Tennessee into western Kentucky and western Ohio. Moderate
instability is now forecast to develop Friday afternoon along this
corridor. As instability increases in the afternoon, scattered
thunderstorm are expected to form ahead of the front. A line of
thunderstorms may also develop just behind the front. The convection
ahead of the front in the stronger instability could pose a marginal
severe risk in the late afternoon.
Forecast soundings from Paducah northeastward into Cincinnati
increase MLCAPE into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range by 21Z and have 25
to 30 kt of 0-6 km shear. This would support multicell formation as
the primary mode. A rotating storm or two can not be ruled out if
deep-layer shear ends up being a bit stronger than currently
forecast. Multicells that develop into line segments may be
associated with an isolated wind damage threat. The cells that
develop near the stronger instability may also have a hail threat.
At this time, the severe threat is expected to remain marginal,
mainly due to the poor lapse rates that are forecast across the
area.
..Broyles.. 10/22/2020
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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