SPC AC 221756

   Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1256 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
   OHIO/INDIANA VICINITY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
   AREA...

   CORRECTED TEXT

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few marginally severe thunderstorms -- capable of producing strong
   wind gusts and hail -- will be possible Friday afternoon and evening
   from the Lake Erie vicinity to the mid Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee
   Valleys.

   ...Synopsis...
   Broad upper cyclonic flow will be maintained across a large portion
   of the U.S. Friday, as one short-wave trough ejects northeastward
   across the Great Lakes vicinity into eastern Canada, while a second
   digs southeastward out of western Canada into the northern
   Intermountain region.  

   At the surface, a cold front extending from the Great Lakes to Texas
   early Friday will continue advancing steadily eastward and
   southeastward.  By Saturday morning, the boundary should stretch
   from the Northeast southwestward to the western Gulf of Mexico. 
   This front will focus an eastward-moving band of convection through
   the period.

   ...Ohio south-southwest to the Tennessee Valley area...
   Showers and embedded thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Friday
   morning from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains, along an
   advancing cold front.  Some heating/destabilization is expected
   ahead of the front, yielding in modest destabilization.  As a
   result, an afternoon uptick in convective intensity is expected, as
   storms cross the Ohio/mid Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys.  With
   moderate flow aloft resulting in sufficient shear for at least some
   updraft organization, a few stronger cells evolving within the
   broader zone of convection may become capable of producing
   marginally severe hail and/or locally damaging wind gusts.  However,
   the overall risk should remain limited, due to the rather modest
   CAPE/shear combination that is expected.  Storms will continue
   moving eastward through the remainder of the afternoon, but should
   gradually weaken through the evening as convection approaches the
   west slopes of the Appalachians.

   ..Goss.. 10/22/2020

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