Oct 27, 2020 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Oct 27 05:26:26 UTC 2020 (20201027 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20201027 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20201027 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 11,147 1,463,895 Mobile, AL...Pensacola, FL...Ferry Pass, FL...Prichard, AL...Pascagoula, MS...
MARGINAL 28,653 1,957,346 Montgomery, AL...Gulfport, MS...Dothan, AL...Auburn, AL...Biloxi, MS...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20201027 0600 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 11,142 1,463,522 Mobile, AL...Pensacola, FL...Ferry Pass, FL...Prichard, AL...Pascagoula, MS...
2 % 28,726 2,023,086 Montgomery, AL...Gulfport, MS...Dothan, AL...Auburn, AL...Biloxi, MS...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20201027 0600 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20201027 0600 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 270526

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1226 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTHERN
   ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A couple tornadoes are possible beginning Wednesday afternoon
   through Wednesday night over parts of the central Gulf Coast states
   in association with Zeta.

   ...Central Gulf Coast...
   Tropical cyclone Zeta will approach the coast and subsequently move
   inland during the period.  The influx of a tropical airmass
   (characterized by mid 70s surface dewpoints) will gradually spread
   inland over southeast LA and the immediate coastal areas of MS/AL/FL
   Panhandle during the day.  Forecast soundings show hodographs
   enlarging initially over southeast LA and later along the MS/AL/FL
   Panhandle coasts by late afternoon.  Sufficient buoyancy and
   enlarged hodographs (0-1 km SRH 300-600 m2/s2) will probably yield
   the development of several mini supercells in the outer bands of
   Zeta.  It appears the greatest tornado risk will be confined to far
   southern AL and the FL Panhandle where larger CAPE (500-1000 J/kg)
   and SRH will spatiotemporally overlap.  Considerable uncertainty
   remains how far inland a low/conditional supercell-tornado risk will
   develop late overnight (i.e., east-central AL and adjacent parts of
   GA).

   ..Smith.. 10/27/2020

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z