Mobile, AL...Gulfport, MS...Pensacola, FL...Biloxi, MS...Panama City, FL...
MARGINAL
28,104
2,296,487
New Orleans, LA...Montgomery, AL...Metairie, LA...Kenner, LA...Dothan, AL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
18,709
1,900,688
Mobile, AL...Gulfport, MS...Pensacola, FL...Biloxi, MS...Panama City, FL...
2 %
27,884
2,293,413
New Orleans, LA...Montgomery, AL...Metairie, LA...Kenner, LA...Dothan, AL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 271722
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes are expected from late in the day Wednesday through
Thursday morning over parts of the central Gulf Coast states in
association with Zeta.
...Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle...
Zeta is forecast to make landfall late in the day on Wednesday over
southeast Louisiana, and will weaken as it moves toward northwest
Georgia by Thursday morning.
Preceding landfall, southeasterly low-level winds will maintain 70s
F dewpoints across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the
Florida Panhandle. MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg will develop, and
isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out during the day over
southern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana. Shear at this time
will be marginal for any severe threat, but weak rotation will be
possible with any cells.
A rapid increase in low-level shear resulting in large, looping
hodographs will occur after 00Z along and east of the center track.
SBCAPE may only be a few hundred J/kg near the center due to warming
aloft, but strong lift and very strong shear immediately east of the
center track may lead to rotating storms and a couple tornadoes.
Between 06-12Z Thursday morning, continued low-level theta-e
advection, convergence extending southward into the northern Gulf
and favorable shear may support a line of supercells from southern
Alabama into the Florida Panhandle where 0-1 SRH is expected to
exceed 400 m2/s2. This will support a tornado threat as well, before
winds rapidly veer with the passage of Zeta to the north.
..Jewell.. 10/27/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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