Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 091725
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2020
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OZARKS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong/gusty winds and
perhaps a tornado or two may occur Tuesday across parts of the
Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley, and Midwest.
...Ozarks to the Mid Mississippi Valley and Midwest...
A shortwave trough will progress northeastward Tuesday from the
central Plains across the mid/upper MS Valley and Great Lakes,
eventually reaching Ontario by the end of the period. At the
surface, a low initially over northern MO should deepen as it also
develops northeastward into WI by Tuesday evening. A trailing cold
front is forecast to sweep eastward across portions of the Ozarks,
mid MS Valley, Midwest, and Great Lakes through the period.
Most guidance suggests that at least low 60s surface dewpoints
should be present across the mid MS Valley and Midwest ahead of the
cold front and surface low. However, mid-level lapse rates should
remain poor, and this will probably tend to limit instability, with
up to 500 J/kg of MLCAPE possible mainly due to modest diurnal
heating. Strong low and mid-level winds are expected as the
shortwave trough overspreads these regions. Pre-frontal forecast
soundings across the warm sector show ample low-level and deep-layer
shear, which should support some storm organization. A low-topped
convective line capable of producing isolated strong/gusty winds and
occasional damage appears to be the main threat through the early
evening. But, given 0-1 km SRH of 100-200+ m2/s2 that should be
present along/ahead of this line, a tornado or two may also occur.
This tornado threat may be relatively maximized near the deepening
surface low across far eastern IA into northern IL and southern WI
Tuesday afternoon, where low-level winds could acquire a more
southerly component and locally enhance 0-1 km SRH. Regardless, too
much uncertainty exists regarding the degree of instability and
related storm intensities to include greater severe probabilities
across this area at this time.
..Gleason.. 11/09/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
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