Nov 14, 2020 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Nov 14 17:28:46 UTC 2020 (20201114 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20201114 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20201114 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20201114 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20201114 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20201114 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 141728

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1128 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The threat for thunderstorms is expected to remain fairly low across
   parts of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and southern New England
   Sunday into Sunday night, though strong/gusty winds may still occur
   with shallow convection.

   ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England...
   A shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward across the OH
   Valley, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and New England on Sunday. A deep
   surface low associated with this shortwave trough should develop
   northeastward into Ontario/Quebec through the period. A trailing
   cold front will sweep quickly eastward across parts of the OH
   Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and New England through Sunday evening.

   Limited low-level moisture return should occur ahead of the front,
   with low 50s surface dewpoints possibly extending into parts of
   southern NY/New England by late Sunday afternoon. Poor mid-level
   lapse rates and modest diurnal heating owing to widespread
   cloudiness are generally expected to limit instability through the
   day. Consensus of latest guidance suggests that no more than 100-200
   J/kg of surface-based instability may develop ahead of the front by
   peak afternoon heating, mainly from parts of eastern PA into NJ, MD,
   northern VA, and the Delmarva Peninsula. With that said, the low to
   mid-level flow field is expected to be quite strong, with 50-60+ kt
   of south-southwesterly winds present only 1-2 km above the surface.
   Latest convection-allowing model guidance is in general agreement
   that a shallow convective line will develop along the front and
   quickly advance eastward across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and
   perhaps southern New England through early Sunday evening. It is
   possible that strong/gusty winds may reach the surface across these
   regions through convective downdraft processes, even through the
   convection may remain too shallow to support lightning flashes. Low
   probabilities for severe/damaging wind gusts may need to be
   introduced in a later outlook if confidence increases in sufficient
   instability being realized.

   ..Gleason.. 11/14/2020

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