SPC AC 151730

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1130 AM CST Tue Dec 15 2020

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
   NORTH CAROLINA AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong to severe thunderstorms might impact parts of coastal
   North Carolina and the Gulf coastal areas of the northern Florida
   Peninsula Wednesday.

   ...Synopsis...

   Shortwave trough that will be located over the lower MS Valley early
   Wednesday will continue east northeast through the TN Valley during
   the afternoon and Middle Atlantic region Wednesday evening. A weak
   surface cyclone associated with this feature will be situated over
   the central Gulf Coast region at the start of the period, but will
   weaken as it moves east. With the arrival of deeper ascent within an
   upper jet entrance region accompanying the approaching shortwave
   trough, somewhat stronger cyclogenesis is forecast along baroclinic
   zone across the coastal Carolinas during the day. This surface low
   will subsequently develop northeast through southeast VA. A small
   moist warm sector may develop inland over the FL Panhandle during
   the morning as a warm front moves onshore.

   ...Coastal North Carolina...

   A small warm sector will likely advect into coastal NC during the
   afternoon as a surface low develops inland. This will contribute to
   destabilization of the boundary layer with MLCAPE from 300-600 J/kg
   possible. A few thunderstorms may develop, mainly east of deepening
   surface low along and north of the warm front by early to mid
   afternoon. These storms will be near surface based within a strongly
   sheared environment, where large low-level hodographs will support
   potential for a couple of supercells with low-level mesocyclones.
   The main potential limiting factors are the marginal thermodynamic
   environment and small window for storms to organize. Nevertheless
   some threat will exist for a few strong wind gusts and a tornado or
   two, conditional upon sufficient boundary layer destabilization.
   This region will continue to be monitored for a possible upgrade to
   SLGT risk in day 1 updates.

   ...Gulf coastal areas of northern Florida...

   Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along and ahead of a cold front
   over the northern Gulf and extending into the western FL Panhandle.
   A marginally unstable small warm sector is expected to develop
   inland suggesting storms along coastal portions of the Panhandle may
   become surface based with wind profiles supportive of supercells.
   Additional storms will reach the western FL coast later in the
   afternoon, and a few of these storms might remain severe as they
   spread inland along the coast before weakening farther inland. It
   still appears the more robust severe threat will remain offshore for
   most of this region, but an upgrade to SLGT risk might still be
   warranted in day 1 updates.

   ..Dial.. 12/15/2020

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z