Houston, TX...Pasadena, TX...Sugar Land, TX...Missouri City, TX...Baytown, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
6,547
730,670
League City, TX...Galveston, TX...Texas City, TX...Friendswood, TX...Lake Jackson, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
10,304
3,790,386
Houston, TX...Pasadena, TX...Sugar Land, TX...Missouri City, TX...Baytown, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 181726
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CST Fri Dec 18 2020
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across
parts of the middle/upper Texas Coast.
...Middle/Upper Texas Coast...
A shortwave trough over the southern/central Plains Saturday morning
is forecast to move eastward to the lower/mid MS Valley by Saturday
evening. At the surface, a cold front will likely extend
southwestward across central TX from a weak low near southeastern OK
and northeastern TX at the start of the period. Generally elevated
thunderstorms may be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of
central/east TX in a modest low-level warm/moist advection regime.
Weak MUCAPE (less than 500 J/kg) should preclude a severe risk
along/north of the cold front through much of the morning.
Ahead of the cold front, low to perhaps mid 60s surface dewpoints
should advance northward into parts of the middle/upper TX Coast
region by midday. Even though diurnal heating will likely be muted
by widespread cloud cover and mid-level lapse rates should remain
poor, there is some potential for MLCAPE around 250-500 J/kg to
develop by early Saturday afternoon ahead of the front along/near
the coast. Assuming sufficient boundary-layer destabilization, there
will be enough deep-layer shear (40-50 kt) to support updraft
organization. Isolated strong/gusty winds should be the main threat
with any robust storms that can develop over land, before they move
offshore fairly quickly early Saturday afternoon. Even though
low-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong, around 100-150
m2/s of 0-1 km SRH may be present very near the coast. Accordingly,
a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.
Once storms move over the Gulf Saturday afternoon, the marginal
severe threat across parts of the middle/upper TX Coast will end. A
weak surface low may develop eastward along/near the LA Coast
Saturday evening and overnight as the mid-level shortwave trough
continues moving eastward. However, the inland advance of
substantial low-level moisture appears unlikely, with generally
elevated convection expected across LA and the lower MS Valley
Saturday night.
..Gleason.. 12/18/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
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