SPC AC 191717

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1117 AM CST Sat Dec 19 2020

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms are expected across much of Florida and
   southeast Georgia on Sunday.

   ...Synopsis...

   An upper trough extending from the Upper Midwest to the southern
   Plains Sunday morning will pivot eastward through the period,
   extending from the lower Great Lakes to FL by Monday morning. At the
   surface, a weak low near the mouth of the MS River will develop
   eastward across the northeasterly Gulf of Mexico through early
   evening. Meanwhile, a cold front will shift eastward across the Gulf
   of Mexico in tandem with the low, eventually shifting east/southeast
   across northern and central FL overnight. 

   Low level moisture will increase across the eastern Gulf ahead of
   the surface low and cold front, while mid/upper southwesterly flow
   strengthens. However, a poorer-quality airmass over northern FL into
   the central peninsula will be slower to recover. Surface dewpoints
   in the 50s to near 60 F will reside over much of FL through peak
   heating, limiting instability. Furthermore, some warming aloft will
   result in shallower convection. Clusters of thunderstorms will
   likely move onshore north of the Tampa area during the afternoon in
   the vicinity of a warm front. However, this activity will quickly
   lift north of the front and into a drier, weakly unstable airmass
   and should pose little threat for severe convection.

   Most guidance does bring richer low level moisture into the southern
   peninsula and along the west coast of FL from near Tampa southward
   after peak heating. However, will be ill-timed with stronger forcing
   moving well to the northeast of the region by evening. Furthermore,
   any convection moving onshore will likely outpace the arrival of
   better moisture. While a strong storm can not be totally ruled out,
   confidence is low that severe convection will occur.

   ..Leitman.. 12/19/2020

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