SPC AC 100744

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0244 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2020

   Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
   CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST
   ARKANSAS...MISSISSIPPI...WESTERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   An outbreak of severe thunderstorms appears likely Sunday into
   Sunday night, with the greatest threat expected from Louisiana
   east-northeastward through much of the Southeast and Tennessee
   Valley. Strong, long-tracked tornadoes and potentially widespread
   damaging wind are possible.

   ...Synopsis...
   The ejecting shortwave trough initially over the southern High
   Plains Sunday morning is forecast to move quickly eastward and then
   northeastward through the period, as it moves around the periphery
   of a deepening longwave trough over the central CONUS. As this
   occurs, a surface low will move eastward to the Mississippi Valley
   by Sunday afternoon, and then rapidly deepen and move northeastward
   into the lower Great Lakes by Monday morning. Very strong mass
   response will draw rich low-level moisture northward into portions
   of the Southeast. 

   ...East Texas into the Southeast...
   Ingredients for a potential severe thunderstorm outbreak still
   appear likely to come together Sunday. Moderate to locally strong
   destabilization in conjunction with an 80-100 kt midlevel jet and
   50-60 kt low-level jet will result in a very favorable environment
   for organized convection. Ongoing storms across east TX Sunday
   morning will likely spread northeastward with time and become
   increasingly surface based as they encounter rapidly increasing
   low-level moisture, with additional development possible further
   south near the lower MS River valley by late morning. As the
   downstream airmass heats and destabilizes, long-track supercells may
   evolve out of the morning convection and track northeastward into
   portions of MS/AL, with a corresponding risk of strong tornadoes,
   large hail, and damaging wind gusts. Some upscale growth is possible
   with time, which would result in a corresponding widespread damaging
   wind risk, given extremely strong wind fields. Some threat of
   damaging wind and a few tornadoes will likely reach portions of the
   Carolinas by 12Z Monday. 

   ...Mid MS Valley into the OH Valley...
   Destabilization in the vicinity of the primary surface low into the
   mid MS Valley/OH Valley is more uncertain, given the potential for
   disruptive convection further south. However, favorable wind
   profiles and closer proximity to the ejecting shortwave will support
   some severe thunderstorm threat in this region as well, with a
   conditional risk of all hazards given sufficient destabilization.

   ..Dean/Dial.. 04/10/2020

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z