SPC AC 080724
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Fri May 08 2020
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across the Southwest and central/southern
High Plains Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible across
the Florida Peninsula, Ohio Valley and Pacific Northwest.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the OH Valley on
Sunday, followed quickly by another shortwave trough taking a
similar path across the MO and Mid-MS Valleys into the OH Valley.
Progression of these systems will foster another surge of seasonal
cold air into the central and eastern CONUS, reinforcing the
relatively cool and dry air mass already in place.
A few thunderstorms are possible near the lead shortwave trough (and
its attendant surface low) as strong forcing for ascent combines
with cold mid-level temperatures to support isolated thunderstorms.
More widespread thunderstorm potential will exist from the Four
Corners region into the central and southern High Plains as a
shortwave trough and associated mid-level moisture moves across the
region. Additionally, upslope flow is anticipated across the
southern High Plains into eastern CO. Deep boundary-layer mixing may
result in a weakly capped environment with convergence along the lee
trough and/or front (particularly near the intersection of these
surface features) then contributing to convective initiation.
Instability will be modest but strong shear resulting from veering
wind profiles could contribute to a few organized storms. Overall
forecast confidence in that scenario is currently low, owing
primarily to uncertainty regarding low-level moisture return. Severe
probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if forecast
confidence increases.
..Mosier.. 05/08/2020
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