SPC AC 220707

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0207 AM CDT Fri May 22 2020

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY....

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
   central Plains and Middle Missouri Valley on Sunday.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   Broad western CONUS upper troughing will continue to move slowly
   eastward toward the Plains on Sunday, as subtropical ridging builds
   northwestward over the eastern CONUS. Several shortwave troughs will
   likely be rotating through this upper trough, including one moving
   into the southern High Plains and another from the northern Great
   Basin through the Four Corners. 

   At the surface, a broad area of low pressure, with several embedded
   lows, is forecast to be in place across the Plains early Sunday.
   Elevated showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing northeast of one
   of these lows over eastern portions of the Mid MO Valley. A few of
   these storms may be strong enough to produce isolated severe hail. 

   By Sunday afternoon, an extensive warm sector will likely exist from
   the Upper Midwest through the southern Plains. As the broad area of
   low pressure and its embedded low moves gradually eastward, a cold
   front will interact with this warm and unstable air mass, resulting
   in widespread thunderstorm development. Mid-level flow will be
   relatively weak region-wide, but modestly enhanced southwesterly
   mid-level winds are possible in a corridor from the central High
   Plains into the Upper Midwest. Consequently, a narrow area of
   overlap between the stronger vertical shear associated with these
   enhanced winds and moderate instability supports an area of
   relatively higher severe potential across the central Plains.
   Elevated thunderstorms will continue to pose a hail risk into
   central IA.

   ..Mosier.. 05/22/2020

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z